Some people want the Apple Tablet to run Mac OS X's user interface. Others think its UI will be something exotic. Both camps are wrong: The iPhone started a UI revolution, and the tablet is just step two. Here's why.
If you are talking hardware, you can speculate about many different features. But when it comes to the fabled Apple Tablet, there are basically three user interface camps at war. On one side there are the people who think that a traditional GUI—one built on windows, folders and the old desktop metaphor—is the only way to go for a tablet. You know, like with the Microsoft Windows-based tablets, and the new crop of touchscreen laptops.
In another camp, there are the ones who are dreaming about magic 3D interfaces and other experimental stuff, thinking that Apple would come up with a wondrous new interface that nobody can imagine now, one that will bring universal love, world peace and pancakes for everyone—even while Apple and thousands of experts have explored every UI option imaginable for decades.
And then there's the third camp, in which I have pitched my tent, who says that the interface will just be an evolution of an existing user interface, one without folders and windows, but with applications that take over the entire screen. A "modal" user interface that has been proven in the market battlefield, and that has brought a new form of computing to every normal, non-computer-expert consumer.
Yes, people, I'm afraid that the tablet will just run a sightly modified version of the iPhone OS user interface. And you should be quite happy about it, as it's the culmination of a brilliant idea proposed by a slightly nutty visionary genius, who died in 2005 without ever seeing the rise of the JesusPhone.
Windows Mobile 7 is more than a year behind schedule, and Windows Mobile 6.5 has been dismissed by practically everyone in the media as a poor stopgap in Windows Mobile's hastened transition from an enterprise smartphone platform, to a smartphone platform for everyone.
But now that it is only two months away from its grand unveiling, Microsoft really isn't talking about Windows Mobile 7 specifically. However, Microsoft gave Betanews today a number of clues about what to expect toward its release, which show us what we can expect in the new, more consumer-oriented (and more than a bit tardy) mobile operating system.
"You're going to see more from us about the platform in general, to try to do a better job explaining the value proposition to consumers," Microsoft's Greg Sullivan, Senior Marketing Manager, Windows Phone told Betanews today. "We've seen Apple and others come in and get a lot of attention for shipping a feature that we've had for years. So I guess it's on us to kind of describe [the value of Windows Mobile]."
The issue with the platform, of course, is the huge pile of legacy devices and software versions which continued to affect its design up to Windows Mobile 6.5.
"Our fragmentation issue is primarily around screen resolutions and assuming a minimum CPU and storage. So it has been a little bit challenging, because that choice, that flexibility, that freedom that people have to build any kind of device and use any kind of device: touch, non-touch, keyboard, soft key, has required a little bit extra effort in some cases for developers to target apps that run across a wide array of devices," Sullivan said.
"But the (HTC) HD2 is a great early example of our new approach...We've got capacitive and multi-touch support in a Windows Phone, and that's because we did the platform work while working very closely with HTC to do the hardware/software integration."
"I think we'll see over the next few years when the smartphone space grows to the hundreds of millions per year, and looks more like the PC space, the horizontal market that we have will really have even more benefits for end users, because the devices will be more affordable and they'll continue to have the choice [of device types]," Sullivan continued.
"So how are we having our cake and eating it too? We're going to continue the horizontal market, but work very closely with our hardware partners to provide more guidance on the platform so we don't have nine different display sizes that independent software vendors have to target...maybe just two...
"We're going to continue investing in the user experience, and the legacy pocket PC 1999 UI that still kind of shows up if you drill down pretty deep? that's another thing that's changed."
So when we see Windows Mobile 7 finally come to market, it will be on fewer devices, which are designed in close collaboration with manufacturers, and thankfully, the legacy OS architecture looks like it will be retired.
If this is CES, there must be 3D. Lots and lots of 3D. 3D televisions. 3D movies. 3D sporting events. Leave the exhibit hall and you expect the paintings on the wall to leap out at you. Never mind going to the bathroom.
And this year, they swear, will be the year you can have that thrilling experience at home, too.
Noting that 4 out of 10 of last year's top 10-grossing movies were shown in theaters in 3D, Samsung, DreamWorks, and Technicolor announced a global strategic alliance for the delivery of "a complete 3D home entertainment solution" this year -- including a line of 3D-capable HDTVs from Samsung and its new 3D Blu-ray disc player, anchored by the release of Dreamworks' Monsters vs. Aliens. Although Samsung didn't mention it, Intel is presumably involved, having announced its initial agreement with Dreamworks a year and a half ago to produce Monsters vs. Aliens in the first place. The sets will even be able to convert 2D programming to 3D.
In fact, Tim Baxter, president of Samsung Electronics Co.'s consumer division, told the Toronto Star, 10 to 14% of the roughly 35 million TVs sold in the US this year will be 3D-capable. That would be more than 3 million.
LG Electronics, Sony, and Panasonic also announced 3D televisions at the show. In addition, Sony announced its first 3D Blu-ray title, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, which will be released about the same time.
In addition, Disney -- which claims it has produced more 3D content than any other major studio, said it will begin rolling out 3D Blu-ray titles this year, beginning with Disney's A Christmas Carol, and followed by Alice in Wonderland and Toy Story 3.
What helps is that the Blu-ray Disc Association introduced its long-awaited 3D specification in December, on the eve of the premiere of James Cameron's Avatar -- which blew away (or should we say, "blue away") the competition for Christmas movies. With luck, this will help prevent the great Blu-ray/HD DVD wars that held up the adoption of high-definition television.
"For the last two years, we've watched 3D movies, played 3D games, and watched 3D sports at CES," said Forrester analyst James McQuivey in his blog. "The difference in 2010 is that we're looking at commercially ready products. Between the major TV makers, there are at least 20 TVs on display here that we are promised will actually be sold around the world sometime this year. That is genuine progress."
However, McQuivey disputes the 3 million figure, saying that just because millions of people watched Avatar in 3D doesn't mean they're all going to run right out and buy a $2000 3D TV set. Rapid adoption of 3D TV in the home, he said, has three main roadblocks:
Everybody just bought a new TV to support high-definition television, not to mention upgrading to a Blu-ray player -- which itself would have to be replaced to play 3D in 3D (3D disks will play in 2D).
The 3D experience is only good for a handful of viewing experiences, ones that you pay really close attention to, such as games, movies, and sporting events such as the Fiesta Bowl, because you have to sit directly in front of the set -- with the *#^$^% glasses. It's not for having Oprah on while you're doing the ironing.
It also requires a big investment by the industry, so not all content is likely to be 3D right away in any event.
McQuivey's prediction: "If it took 10 years for HD to go from 1 home to reach more than half the US population, it will take 3D just as long."
During his CES 2010 keynote Wednesday, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer spent a little bit of time showing off the slate (or tablet, if you prefer) form factor, and Windows 7's integration with it. In addition to the top secret HP tablet which Microsoft told me was flown in just hours before the event and flown right back out again, Ballmer mentioned other slates with large screens.
One of them is the forthcoming Pegatron Slate, which I had the fortune of spending a good deal of time with this afternoon.
It's easy to like tablet devices when you're not required to do any work on them. Anyone would be impressed by the Pegatron slate (or most Windows 7 slates, for that matter) if they were just poking around in the entertainment features. But if you try to get down to real, hard text entry, it requires serious mental reprogramming, and that's an instant turn-off. Also, when you're familiar with an operating system and commands done with a trackpad or mouse -- or worse, keyboard shortcuts -- having to reconfigure your mental handling of the OS is troublesome.
But in the end, the hardware is solid, the 11.6" touchscreen is responsive, and use of Windows 7 is a breeze. It felt kind of heavy to me, though. But that may be because just beforehand I was handling some "X-series" notebooks like the Dell Adamo and the Sony Vaio X.
The revolution, if there is one, may not be automated. In the early going for Google's Nexus One phone, made by HTC and announced Tuesday, customers are learning that "support" for this phone is about as personal as Google Maps. Amid the immersive purchasing experience touted by Google executives during their Tuesday barn-raising ceremony, customers are discovering a definitive lack of the personal touch.
Exemplifying many of the problems early customers are having this week is a post this morning to the Nexus One support site by customer Martin Thorborg. He was paying full price for the unlocked phone, but had the simple problem of trying to get Google to ship the phone to his new address, after having moved since first creating his Google account. Attempts to change his shipping address with both Google and FedEx were all met with automated responses, telling him he was not allowed to cancel his order -- which he wasn't trying to do. Then later, FedEx sent him an automated message telling him he could not change the shipping address on his order "for security reasons."
Apparently FedEx will continue to attempt to ship the order three times to Thorborg's old address, after which it will be returned to Google. He'll be refunded, with the exception of the $45 shipping fee. Thorborg's last message to Google contained a reference to a certain bodily orifice.
"It might be okay to treat people like this when you get stuff for free, but when you pay $563.38 it is simply not okay," Thorborg told patrons of the support site. "Google, stick to what you know and let other people handle the Web shop."
In just a few hours' time, Thorborg received multiple messages from other customers, all in support. One reads in part, "You would expect a certain level of timeliness on service if you're handing over premium dollars for a device. [Nexus One] seems like a fantastic device, [but] I am actually somewhat surprised that the service level seems to be as low as it is. I expected [Google] to come out of the gate swinging and making a statement that they are serious about this." Another support thread, also started this morning, is a gathering of dissatisfied customers, some who are experiencing bugs with the relatively new Android 2.1 software (for instance, photos that cannot be deleted), but many who simply can't get adequate 3G service. Google's carrier of choice for subsidized GSM phones is T-Mobile, but some customers finding no coverage there are experimenting with AT&T...and finding no solace there.
And since Google, in the name of openness, does not police its forums, individuals who do complain are being confronted not by automated messages, but by profanity.
"I love my Nexus phone. Unfortunately it can only perform as well as the network it runs on," reported user Adrian Tubke, who ended up being compared to other unmentionables. "I'm right here in Manhattan. My iPhone on AT&T was bad in terms of dropped calls and slow data. But the Nexus is even worse. Not the phone's fault. The Nexus makes my iPhone look like the golden choice again...Let's just get it over with. Where do I send the Nexus to return it and how long does it take to get my money back?"
As Tubke may be learning today, that might be a problem. The typical T-Mobile early termination fee starts out at $200, declining to as low as $50 for contracts with 90 days or fewer remaining. But as Google's Terms of Sale point out in the small print, Google itself may charge an extra "early termination fee" of as high as $350 additional. Thus customers dissatisfied with the phone may find that buying the rest of the phone is the only way they can walk away from it.
"You agree to pay Google an equipment subsidy recovery fee (the "Equipment Recovery Fee") equal to the difference between the full price of the Nexus handheld device without service plan and the price you paid for the Nexus handheld device if you cancel your wireless plan prior to 120 days of continuous wireless service," reads Google's Terms of Sale. "For example, if the full price of the Nexus handheld device without service plan was $529 USD and the price you paid for the Nexus handheld device was $179 USD with a service plan, the Equipment Recovery Fee you pay will be $350 USD in the event you cancel within the first 120 days of carrier service." It doesn't appear that this ERF value declines over time, like a normal ETF. Both Google and T-Mobile failed to respond to Betanews' repeated requests for clarification all this week, even though Google does provide us with prompt responses on other subjects.
As Washington Internet policy advocate George Ou stated in a blog post earlier this week, Google's policy isn't anything new -- it's the sort of thing Verizon Wireless has done. But VZW, Ou says, doesn't cloak its ETFs in small-print language; thus, Google's presumably revolutionary business model actually ends up looking old-fashioned, and not in a good way.
"Google acting as the distributor of the Nexus One is not too different than Apple distributing their iPhone in Apple Retail Stores except for the fact that the former doesn't let you touch the phone in a brick and mortar store," Ou wrote. "I'm not knocking the phone because by all reports it seems to be one of the most impressive Google Android phones to date and the technical specifications exceed the iPhone. I don't have a problem with this Google business model for the Nexus One, but I don't see how it's anything new."
Some people want the Apple Tablet to run Mac OS X's user interface. Others think its UI will be something exotic. Both camps are wrong: The iPhone started a UI revolution, and the tablet is just step two. Here's why.
